Panel Suggests Covid 19 could be Under Control by Feb

Statement given by the panel kindles new hope regarding covid-19

Tuesday, 20th October 2020

A committee appointed by the government of India has said that cases of the coronavirus disease in the country has peaked this September, but can be contained by the end of February 2021 if necessary preventive measures are abided by, as per a mathematical module.

This prediction is despite the contention by Niti Aayog member V K Paul that one still cannot rule out the possibility of a second wave of spikes this winter. He said European countries are already seeing a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and stressed upon appropriate behavior during the festive season and winter.

For the past one month, the country has shown a consistently decreasing trend in the number of daily infections. This is a first since the pandemic’s onset in March this year.

Till the end of last week, India reported 63,025 new infections every day on average, a drop of about 33% from the peak recorded in the middle of September, and the lowest this number has touched since the middle of June.

M Vidyasagar, professor, IIT Hyderabad, said the numbers were “negligible” initially in March and then there was a “exponential growth rate” after which it peaked around mid-September and then began to wind down again. However, he added, despite there being a “nice downward trend”, it will remain to be that way only if “protective measures” are continued to be followed.

Vidyasagar heads the 10-member panel that has done a study titled ‘Progression of the COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Prognosis and Lockdown Impacts’.

Professor Manindra Agrawal from IIT Kanpur also said the current daily active cases of 80,000 is set to drop below 40,000 if appropriate measures are followed.

It was the Department of Science and Technology (DST) that commissioned ‘Covid-19 India National Supermodel’ to experts from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, IIT Hyderabad, Indian Institute of Science, Indian Statistical Institute, Christian Medical College, National Institute of Epidemiology, ministry of defense, etc.

The panel also mentioned that without the initial lockdown, India would have had more than 2.5 million deaths by now. The numbers currently stand at a little over 100,000.

Source: Times of India