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Monsoon tip-toes into the Bay of Bengal; Onset in Kerala on 31st May

Monsoon enters the Bay of Bengal…learn more…

Tuesday, 25th May 2021

The southwestern monsoons progressed towards the Southern Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, and the Andaman Sea on May 21st, 2021, a day prior to its scheduled arrival date as per the info provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The prediction matches the May 14 long-range weather forecast by the IMD where it was told that the monsoon-bearing winds might cause rainfall over the state of Kerala from 31st of May, just a day prior to the normal arrival date of June 1st.

The disastrous cyclonic activities in the Arabian Sea as well as in the Bay of Bengal might affect the monsoon system in the forthcoming days paving the way for the start of the season.

 “Cyclone Yaas can draw the monsoon winds and moisture to the North Bay, resulting in an early onset over that region,” stated Roxy Mathew Koll, a famed climate expert, and scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. 

Cyclonic storm ‘Yaas’ formed on the central part of the Bay of Bengal in the early hours of / 24th of May. Predictions are that ‘Yaas’ will make its landfall amid Paradip in the state of Odisha and the Sagar Islands of West Bengal as a significantly severe cyclonic storm on the 26th of May.

 “Cyclones Amphan and Nisarga helped pull the trough last year and made the onset on time, which was originally predicted for June 5. This year, Cyclone Yaas may have a similar influence,” stated Raghu Murtugudde, a well-known climate scientist at the University of Maryland.

“Monsoon onset over Kerala does not indicate the monsoon's progress over the entire country,” stated Elena Surovyatkina, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany as well as a principal researcher at the Space Research Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow, Russia. Surovyatkina added:

Cyclone Tauktae has definitely impacted the start of the monsoons. However, such severe pre-monsoon rains usually disrupt the well-organized and set pattern of the monsoon system and eventually lead to delayed monsoon advance.

The monsoon-borne rains might make their entry into the central part of India by June’s end. This may be called delayed monsoon as the normal date of onset should be somewhere in mid-June, predicted Surovyatkina.

She also predicted that the monsoon season might start in the state of Telangana between the 24th of June and the 2nd of July. The normal monsoon onset for that particular region is on the 10th of June. The monsoon-borne rains might ultimately reach Capital City Delhi between the 11th of July and the 19th of July, delayed by over two weeks from the normal onset date of 27th June.

The late-onset, she thinks, is due to atmospheric pressure spikes and resultant temperature spikes in Western Siberia in the month of April 2021. That event had triggered cold polar wind outbreaks moving westward from the high-pressure zone and the below-normal temperature drops across large areas extending from Iceland to the Black Seas and the Mediterranean.

The temperatures of air too were below the average across eastern Siberia, across China, and much of the tropical as well as sub-tropical belts of the eastern Pacific Ocean.

In the northern parts of Pakistan and in northern as well as central India, the temperatures were below average by about three to four degrees Celsius. “I expect that this temperature tendency will remain during the beginning of the monsoon. If so, it disorganizes the onset of monsoon, alternating premature rainfall and dry spells and leading to a delayed monsoon onset over central India regions,” stated Surovyatkina.


The News Talkie Bureau



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