Vaccine progress was better in smaller, less populous states than in larger ones.

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Wednesday, 23rd June 2021

According to an Oxford Economics analysis, India has ramped up its vaccination pace in June after a sluggish start in April and May. However, the smaller and less populous states have made better vaccine progress than the larger ones. On June 22, the updated vaccination guidelines went into force across the country, resulting in the largest number of doses ever given in a single day. The government would offer free COVID-19 vaccines to all Indian citizens over the age of 18 under the new guidelines.

According to the government's centralized free vaccination policy, which went into effect on June 21, the government will acquire 75% of vaccines and distribute them to states for free to all adults. As part of the liberalized plan outlined earlier, the government would also handle the 25% immunization that was previously handled by states.

According to Oxford Economics, the most populous state in India, Uttar Pradesh, as well as economically vital states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal, have not yet reached ‘safe' vaccination levels.

"International experience suggests that governments should begin loosening restrictions significantly when 28 percent to 47 percent of the population has been vaccinated, a range we term the 'vaccine tipping point," according to the research. As a result, Delhi, Karnataka, Kerala, and Gujarat have tipped over the line, but analysts believe there are still reasons to be cautious.

"Vaccination rates in the more populated and economically important states are considerably below the levels regarded safe for reducing social separation requirements. Premature state re-openings could backfire, leading to a new outbreak of illnesses and more tightening of regulations in the future, according to Oxford Economics.

The country's vaccination situation keeps the outlook cautious, and Oxford Economics has kept its economic growth prediction for 2021 at 9.1%. Earlier in the day, Moody's Investors Service lowered India's growth forecast for the calendar year 2021 from 13.9 percent to 9.6 percent, down from 13.9 percent previously. A speedier vaccination rate in the country will be critical in limiting the economic losses to the April-June quarter, according to the report.

According to a research released last week by Swiss brokerage UBS Securities India, the economy may have fallen by 12% in the June quarter as a result of lockdowns enforced in various states in April and May to combat the pandemic's second wave.

The News Talkie Bureau

Source

NDTV