Covid's third wave is expected to arrive this month and peak in October, according to the report.

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Tuesday, 3rd August 2021

According to researchers, India could see another increase in Covid-19 cases as early as August, with the third wave peaking at less than 100,000 infections per day in the best-case scenario or nearly 150,000 in the worst-case scenario. According to Bloomberg, researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur, respectively, believe the increase in Covid-19 cases will push the coronavirus pandemic into its third wave, which could peak in October. In an email to Bloomberg, Vidyasagar stated that states with high Covid-19 cases, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could “skew the picture.”

The third wave of Covid-19 is unlikely to be as severe as the second wave, during which India reported 400,000-plus daily cases and then declined. The prediction is based on a mathematical model developed by the researchers, who correctly predicted the decrease in Covid-19 cases earlier this year.

Based on the mathematical model, Vidyasagar, a professor at IIT Hyderabad, predicted that India's coronavirus outbreak would peak in the coming days in May. “We anticipate that the peak will occur within a few days. According to current projections, we should be able to handle 20,000 cases per day by the end of June. "We will revise this as needed," Vidyasagar said in an email to Bloomberg.

However, Vidyasagar's team's prediction in April that the wave would peak by the middle of last month proved incorrect. He explained on Twitter at the time that it was due to "incorrect parameters" because "the pandemic was changing rapidly, even wildly, until about a week ago."

He also told Reuters that the peak would occur between May 3 and 5, and India Today that it would occur on May 7.

On Sunday, India reported 41,831 Covid-19 cases and 541 deaths, even as the Centre warned ten states, including Kerala, Maharashtra, and the northeastern regions, about the rising infections and urged them to take action to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

Experts have also warned that the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which spreads as easily as chickenpox and can be passed on by vaccinated people, could contribute to the outbreak. According to data from the Indian Sars-CoV-2 Genomic Consortium (INSACOG), the highly infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus caused nearly 8 out of every 10 Covid-19 cases in May, June, and July.

The News Talkie Bureau

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hindustantimes