Between August 22 and September 10, Karnataka could witness 20 lakh cases if a new variety emerges: IISc

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Tuesday, 10th August 2021

For the emergence of the third wave in the state, researchers from the Indian Institute of Sciences (IISc) prepared an ensemble forecast with 972 possibilities (changing 7 control variables).

Professor Sashikumaar Ganesan, chairman of the Department of Computational and Data Sciences, led the team, which included Deepak Subramani and some PhD students, as well as Giridhar Babu. He explains how the model projects societal isolation, early development of novel variations, and immunisation are responsible for wave three in an exclusive conversation with The New Indian Express. It also forecasts that even with two times the vaccination rate, the worst social separation, which is pre-COVID levels, guarantees the appearance of future waves.

It also forecasts that even with two times the vaccination rate, the worst social separation (pre-COVID) guarantees the emergence of future waves.

We are aware of it, and as you correctly pointed out, there are several uncertainties in terms of the covid dispersion, as well as data that is needed for accurate model predictions and parameter fitting.

We used an ensemble forecast to account for all of these factors, particularly for the wave three projection. It means that we take into account various critical characteristics that influence wave 3 and strive to generate different scenarios by varying those values.

What are the conditions?

To design the model, we took into account seven essential parameters, adjusted them with different values, and then created 972 tests or scenarios. All of the model's uncertainties have been taken into account.

Case to case infection ratio, antibody waning duration, antibody waning in 1/3rd, 2/3rd, and entire population are among the parameters. novel viral types that evade the immune system (july, sept, nov) Reinfection due to new variants (1/3rd, 2/3rd, and whole); vaccination rate per day (2.8 lakhs, 4.2 l (+50%), 5.6 l (+100%)); and, finally, Covid suitable behaviour (good-lockdown like compliance, bad or relaxed situation; worst case scenario) (like in precovid scenario)

We were interested in the study because of three major factors: 1. Wave 3's chances are 2/3. peak date and caseload (age wise at the peak).

Could you clarify a few of the main parameters that were looked at?

Despite the fact that there are seven critical characteristics, we have identified three key parameters.

The most important criterion is Covid's suitable behaviour; the second is the timing of the new version; and the third is the immunisation rate. We may not even see a third wave once we have all three under control, assuming the state and its people handle it correctly.

When can we expect a third wave to impact Karnataka, based on this model? Also, when do you think it'll reach its peak?

What we've discovered is that if extremely strong social separation is established, a lockdown scenario should be followed, and if a new variety appears around mid-August or late-August, the chances of an increase in the number of cases are 50:50.

We won't see a wave three if a new variety appears after September, October, and November, and if we stick to the favourable social distance scenario like during lockdown. However, this is extremely unlikely, as we cannot currently anticipate a lockdown scenario.

Then we move on to the most likely situation, which is the "poor" or loosened social distancing SD.

It signifies that the model expects a large number of cases in this distribution of cases if the vaccination rate is in the present phase. If a new variety appears in August, and vaccination is increased, we are observing a decrease in the maximum caseload.

Meanwhile, if any new variant is discovered between September and October, we will have to reinstate all covid appropriate behaviour and limits. The good news is that if vaccination rates are raised, the number of active cases will drop by tenfold. Otherwise, if the current scenario continues, the case load could be closer to 10,000 to 7 to 8 lakhs.

The peak would be around December 2021 and would last until March 2022. From November to March of the next year, there could be a cluster of cases, as the scenario depicts. If additional variants appear after November, there is a cluster of no wave possibilities, which suggests that numerous cases predict that there will be no new wave.

As a result, we must keep a close eye on the next three to six months, as these are critical times.

If we wait until November to see if new varieties arise, I don't think we'll see a peak in Karnataka. If a new variant emerges before that, we will almost certainly see a peak five to six weeks after the new variant emerges.

The News Talkie Bureau

Source

Newindianexpress