Covid 19: India to be badly hit by mid November

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Covid 19: India to be badly hit by mid November

The study revealed the following observations

Monday, 15th June 2020

The early announcements of lockdown by the government and health measures taken by the people have postponed the highest spike of coronavirus pandemic to mid-November. A shortage of ventilators and isolation and ICU beds is going to be expected, concluded the study.


Approximately, by 69-97% the number of possible infection has been cut down as the peak has been delayed from 34 to 76 days due to the lockdown and this will help in collect more resources and better infrastructure according to a research carried out by Operations Research Group’s researchers established by ICMR.


Until November 1st week, there will not be any shortage as the effectiveness of the post-lockdown health measures has been 60%. Later on, for almost 5.4 months, the isolation beds might fall short, followed by ICU beds for 4.6 months and ventilators for 3.9 months, according to the observations found from the study.


Fortunately, because of the lockdown and health measures taken by the people the shortage is 83% reduced.


With better health measures coverage (of up to 80%) and infrastructure, India can be prepared to tackle the pandemic effects.


During the peak the number of cases might come down by70% and the cumulative cases might fall down by 27%, said the model-based analysis, as a result of increased number of testing, treating and isolating capacity created during the lockdown. Deaths were reduced by 60%, the analysis revealed.


“While lockdowns will delay the onset of peak and will give the much needed time for the health system to respond, strengthening the health system response in terms of testing, isolation of cases, treatment and contact tracing, as is being done currently, will have to be the mainstay to reduce the impact of the pandemic in India until vaccine becomes available”, it added.


The overall economic health system may consume 6.2 per cent of India's gross domestic product as a result of this pandemic.


The total number of corona-positive cases has stood at 3,20,922 until this Sunday with a death toll of 9,195, said the Union Health Ministry data.


Now, India stands at 4th position in the world for the worst-hit country by the pandemic.


958 Covid-19 hospitals have been created, having 1,67,883 isolation beds, 73,469 oxygen supported and 21,614 ICU beds, the ministry said on 9th of June. India’s infrastructure has been advanced with respect to the Covid-19 pandemic.


Covid-19 hospitals have been operationalized to 2,313 with 10,748 ICU, 46,635 oxygen supported beds and 1,33,037 isolation beds. The nation is ready to face the adversity with 7,525 COVID Care Centers and 7,10,642 beds. 21,494 ventilators are presently available and 60,848 more orders for the same have been placed.



Source: NDTV

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